Monday (30 March 2020) morning’s Texas Division of Emergency Services situation report listed 25,483 as having been tested for the Wuhan virus and listed confirmed cases at 2,552.
If the confirmed cases rate was a huge ten-times the actual number, 25,552, it would not be even close to 1% of the state’s population. In fact to reach even 1% of Texans testing positive for the Wuhan virus, a whopping 290,000 people would have to be infected.
For most the virus is so benign, about 81% according to WHO data, that only about 19% needs any form of hands-on medical care or hospitalization. Thus if we multiplied Monday’s Texas case number by 113.63 to pretend there were 290,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Texas, 1% of the population, of that number it is unlikely that more than 2/10ths of the Texas population would require hospitalization.
In other words, at well more than a hundred times the number of confirmed cases Texas had on 30 March, a very big multiple for the sake of the doomsayers, based on current CDC and WHO numbers, only 58,000 people would require some type of hands-on medical care.
That is a lot of people, again if we had 113-times more cases than we actually do, but remember Texas has over 58,000 “staffed” hospital beds plus thousands of non-staffed beds in reserve.
According to CDC, over a quarter million (274,304) were hospitalized from H1N1 over the 2009-2010 flu season. Texas equals about 11.5% of the U.S. population thus the Texas’ share would have been 31,544 hospitalizations.
Did we shutdown our economy and abridge our civil rights for that a decade ago?
Context: 2009-2010’s H1N1 experience versus Wuhan virus numbers in Texas
Texas’ population is about 29 million people at present.
If the confirmed cases rate was a huge ten-times the actual number, 25,552, it would not be even close to 1% of the state’s population. In fact to reach even 1% of Texans testing positive for the Wuhan virus, a whopping 290,000 people would have to be infected.
For most the virus is so benign, about 81% according to WHO data, that only about 19% needs any form of hands-on medical care or hospitalization. Thus if we multiplied Monday’s Texas case number by 113.63 to pretend there were 290,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Texas, 1% of the population, of that number it is unlikely that more than 2/10ths of the Texas population would require hospitalization./arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-expressandstar-mna.s3.amazonaws.com/public/NPU7KNMQBVFHPEO32I5LAZVS3M.jpg)
In other words, at well more than a hundred times the number of confirmed cases Texas had on 30 March, a very big multiple for the sake of the doomsayers, based on current CDC and WHO numbers, only 58,000 people would require some type of hands-on medical care.
That is a lot of people, again if we had 113-times more cases than we actually do, but remember Texas has over 58,000 “staffed” hospital beds plus thousands of non-staffed beds in reserve.
According to CDC, over a quarter million (274,304) were hospitalized from H1N1 over the 2009-2010 flu season. Texas equals about 11.5% of the U.S. population thus the Texas’ share would have been 31,544 hospitalizations.
Did we shutdown our economy and abridge our civil rights for that a decade ago?