Interesting what we’ve learned about the big Texas Lyceum poll out this week.
We’ve learned that the poll which shows Texas Republicans winning across the board in November but, has Wendy Davis within nine points of Abbott, was oddly “weighted in the direction of younger voters who are typically less likely to vote in a non-presidential race. Twenty-five percent of those polled were under thirty years of age and fifty-five percent were under age forty-five. Forty-five percent of those polled were also identified as single, not-married voters,” according to Bob Price at Breitbart Texas.
He also reported that “The poll is also skewed in the number of Hispanic voters polled. Hispanics represented thirty-seven percent of those polled which is nearly double their usual number of November voters.”
Even with the poll skewed to promote the Democrat vote numbers, Wendy Davis and Leticia Van de Putte are still trailing by a very big margin. I agree with the anonymous consultant quoted in the Breitbart story who said: “This is a terrible poll. It is quite likely Davis will receive the blunt end of a twelve to fifteen point defeat.”
My question is why would Texas Lyceum members spend their money on a poll that doesn’t use a sample rate equal to what voter turnout is known to be? Could it be because the group is also pushing issues in the upcoming Legislative Session and wanted a poll that more supported government spending? I don’t know but, past experience tells me it probably is.
Why did the Texas Lyceum poll use an odd sampling?
Robert Pratt
Interesting what we’ve learned about the big Texas Lyceum poll out this week.
We’ve learned that the poll which shows Texas Republicans winning across the board in November but, has Wendy Davis within nine points of Abbott, was oddly “weighted in the direction of younger voters who are typically less likely to vote in a non-presidential race. Twenty-five percent of those polled were under thirty years of age and fifty-five percent were under age forty-five. Forty-five percent of those polled were also identified as single, not-married voters,” according to Bob Price at Breitbart Texas.
He also reported that “The poll is also skewed in the number of Hispanic voters polled. Hispanics represented thirty-seven percent of those polled which is nearly double their usual number of November voters.”
Even with the poll skewed to promote the Democrat vote numbers, Wendy Davis and Leticia Van de Putte are still trailing by a very big margin. I agree with the anonymous consultant quoted in the Breitbart story who said: “This is a terrible poll. It is quite likely Davis will receive the blunt end of a twelve to fifteen point defeat.”
My question is why would Texas Lyceum members spend their money on a poll that doesn’t use a sample rate equal to what voter turnout is known to be? Could it be because the group is also pushing issues in the upcoming Legislative Session and wanted a poll that more supported government spending? I don’t know but, past experience tells me it probably is.