Do pro-crafted letters from the spouse of a candidate seem a bit smarmy to you?

The following email was received from the Congressman Randy Neugebauer campaign today as from his wife, Dana Neugebauer. And, I’ve no problem with its content. I just want to ask your opinion: Do you find such obviously campaign-crafted letters a bit smarmy when sent under the name of the of the office-holder or candidate’s spouse? Not just any campaign note but this type of over-detailed piece? Use the comment section at the bottom to have your say.

Friend,

Last week in Washington, the Republican Congressional Spouses organization had an opportunity to hear from Charlie Cook. He was great. If you don’t know Charlie, he’s the Editor and Publisher of the Cook Political Report and a political analyst for National Journal magazine, where he writes a twice-weekly column. Charlie is considered one of the nation’s leading authorities on American politics and U.S. elections. My shorthand from days-gone-by came in handy and I took notes as fast as I could. I would love to share a bit of what I learned from Charlie. I hope I got down what he said accurately and that you find this information interesting, and please remember, these are Charlie’s words and predictions – not mine.

Charlie believes that there are 5 problem areas for Republicans:

1. Minority voters
2. Young voters
3. Women voters
4. Moderates
5. Nominating the wrong people (He called these people “exotics”.)

Minority Voters: Romney won 59% of the white vote, but winning the white vote isn’t enough.  Bush got 44% of the Latino vote; Romney got 27% of the Latino vote.  Those are trends that must be addressed and improved.  Asian Americans—their values match Republican values yet Romney lost these voters overwhelmingly.  We have a message that strongly resonates with minorities.  We must do a better job of outreach and communication.

Young Voters: Under age 30 are the most Democratic age group; Over 65 is the most Republican age group.  This illustrates that Republicans do well with the “pre-dead” (Charlie’s term) but not so good with the future.  We heard that younger voters cannot hear the economic message because social issues are deal breakers; dialing down the volume about some issues might serve us well.

Women Voters: There are more women voters than men voters and we must improve our messaging.

Moderate Voters: Romney won the Independent vote by 5% but lost the election by 4%.  Moderates are different than independents and winning independents isn’t enough.  Moderates need to be convinced “This would be good for my money and my family.”  The experts suggest that Independents are not necessarily watching the news, but they don’t like edgy rhetoric.  We need to know more about what is making moderates vote how they vote.

Charlie Cook also provided a number of election predictions.

HOUSE:
The Republicans should hold the House until 2022.  Republicans could pick up 7 – 8 seats net this year; they might lose a seat or two; there could be a bigger net gain of 7 – 8.
*You cannot lose a seat you don’t have or already have.
*96% of the Dems left in the House, Obama won their area.
*93% of the Rep left in the House, Romney won.

SENATE:
Currently 55-45.  Rep. need 6 seats for a Republican majority.

4 Reasons the future of the Senate is bad for the Democrats:

1. The numbers:  21 D Seats up; 15 R seats up for re-election
2. Map—Geography; 1/3 of seats up for re-election every 2 years.  This year, 7 seats are up in states where Romney won; 1 seat is up in a state where Obama won.  In 6 of the 7, Romney won by 14+ points.
3. Timing—midterm elections have smaller turn-outs and voters are older, whiter, more conservative, and more Republican
4. Political environment

3 Democratic Seats the Republicans Should Win:
South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia

So, then Republicans need 3 more:

In the following States, Republicans have at least a 50-50 chance:
Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, and North Carolina

Iowa and Michigan are tilting Republican.

More difficult seats for Republicans:
New Hampshire, Virginia (Virginia is no longer a Southern state; it is a Mid-Atlantic state), Minnesota, and Oregon

2 Places Republicans Might Lose:
Georgia and Kentucky

In general, Georgia is getting less secure for Republicans, but it is not quite ripe for the Democrats. The Georgia Senate race is looking better for Republicans because an “exotic” is not in the run-off for the Rep. nominee. **In yesterday’s runoff, voters chose David Perdue as the GOP nominee in this race.

Kentucky—Mitch McConnell

1. Mitch is not warm and fuzzy and doesn’t “connect” very well.
2. There is a growing group of people who say, “I hate Washington. I hate Congress. If you are one of the most powerful people in Washington, I must really hate you most of all.” This is McConnell’s biggest problem (and was Eric Cantor’s). This might cause some Republicans to stay home.

McConnell’s numbers are rising ever so slightly.  COAL is a big issue in this race.

According to Charlie, there is a 60% chance the Republicans will get a majority in the Senate.

This is VERY, VERY close because each race is VERY, VERY close.

The Race for the Presidency:

Hillary—Charlie says there’s a 30-40% chance she will not run. She turns 69 right before the election and she knows how hard this job is. Her recent book roll-out was an indication of how difficult the campaign would be. But if Hillary doesn’t run, the field for the Dems is wide open.  Biden turns 73 right after the election, so it is not going to be him either.

On the Republican side, per Charlie Cook:

1. It won’t be Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, or Jeb Bush.  He cited a number of reasons but the important take-away was that it won’t be one of these men.
2. The formers will run again:  Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry
3. There are 5 GOP Governors
4. There are 2 Tea Party Senators
5. Ben Carson will likely not be a mainstream candidate.

The questions are: Are people going to give Democrats three White House elections in a row and have Republicans fixed their problems?

Many of you ask about candidates in other areas of the country that you might support – either by volunteering or by donating to various campaigns. I thought this info from Charlie Cook was a good foundation for all of us to use in making good decisions about our various resources.

Randy and I will continue to share what we learn. We all know how important it is for Republicans to keep the House (and get a veto-proof majority) and re-gain the Senate.

Blessings,

Dana