Are suburban Texas women leaning Dem or more conservative than the GOP?

In the ever present effort of the Texas press to act as consultant to Texas Democrats and help them win office, the Texas Tribune had a story headlined: Are Suburban Women Key to Democratic Resurgence?

It was yet another here’s how we can get Wendy Davis elected governor story. For example, part if it reads: “If there exists a combination of luck and strategy that can give Davis a realistic chance of victory, suburban women will likely be a necessary part of the equation.

…fewer women identifying as Republicans in the suburbs could also be because they have been disappointed with the lack of conservative GOP offerings…

“This is because some of these women appear to be turning away from the Republican Party. Consider the last two election cycles. In the heyday of Tea Party enthusiasm, 50 percent of suburban women identified themselves as Republicans, according to the October 2010 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, but that may have been the high-water mark. Two years later, in October 2012, 43 percent identified as Republicans. And in our most recent poll, June 2013, that number had dropped to 38 percent. Democratic identification over the same period increased 9 points from 37 percent to 46 percent.

“One reason to think that suburban women might be part of an electoral solution for the Democrats: They haven’t been swept up in the conservative ideological surge personified by the Tea Party,” the Tribune’s writer asserted.

The data is troubling until you consider a very different, but legitimate, interpretation.

The part about fewer women identifying as Republicans in the suburbs could also be because they have been disappointed with the lack of conservative GOP offerings – meaning they’re not leaning Dem but instead are more conservative than much of the GOP. (The increase in identification as Democrats is troubling but, it may be due to the change in suburban demographics much written about in which exurbs are where these folks have moved with more suburban folk being formerly urban dwellers.)

Much of the Tea Party movement has been woman led!

As to the ideological surge of conservatives through the Tea Party movement, much of this has been led by women which calls into question the conclusion that women aren’t part of it. I’d say non-political, and thus unlikely to vote, women are not part of it.

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